Incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst boasts a 4-point advantage over Democrat Theresa Greenfield in the competitive Iowa race for U.S. Senate, according to the Des Moines Register’s final pre-election poll released Saturday.
The Republican senator pulled ahead of Greenfield among likely Iowa voters, 46 to 42 percent, marking the first time Ernst has led Greenfield in the 2020 Iowa Poll this year.
Greenfield and Ernst have largely polled evenly since the early summer, with last week’s Monmouth University poll showing both candidates supported by 47 percent of the state’s registered voters.
The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The Register’s pre-election poll has been a critical marker of which candidates will carry the state, predicting a 7-point lead for President Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and a 7-point lead for Ernst over Democrat Bruce Braley in 2014.
Trump won the state by 9.6 points in 2016, and Ernst won by 8.5 points in 2014.
The Register will release poll results for the presidential race in Iowa between Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden at 7:30 p.m. Saturday.
Iowa has emerged as a critical battleground in Tuesday’s election. While Trump won Iowa by a wide margin in 2016, former President Barack Obama carried the state in both 2012 and 2008.
Recent polls have shown Biden and Trump locked in a tight race in Iowa. A Monmouth University poll last week showed that 48 percent of Iowa registered voters support Trump and 47 percent support Biden.
Both candidates are making last-minute visits to the battleground with only a few days to go before the election. Biden made a campaign stop at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on Friday, and Trump will hold a rally in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday.
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