In January, FiveThirtyEight.com published a story with the headline, “Some Early Clues About How the Midterms Will Go.” The authors, Alex Samuels and Nathaniel Rakich, named four things to watch during the election year: President Biden’s job approval, the congressional generic ballot, special election results, and individual election polls. Six months later, all signs point to a great night for Republicans in November. With one asterisk.
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